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Hey, It’s Been Sixteen Months Since I Last Did These!
By Jeff Fecke | May 14, 2006
For no reason other than that I can…
2008 Power Rankings
Democratic Party
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (Last Ranking: 1)
No doubt, she’s still atop the leaderboard, and probably will be until early 2008. But why do I have this sneaking suspicion that she won’t be accepting the nomination that summer?
2. Sen. Russell D. Feingold (D-WI) (LR: 5)
No, he won’t set the world afire, but he is shaping up to be Hillary’s bête noire and the favorite of the netroots. Pure on the war, voted against the Patriot Act, he’s Paul Wellstone with more hair and less charisma. Again, I suspect we won’t see him get the endorsement.
3. Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) (LR: 6)
He’ll have The New Republic‘s vote locked up from day one; the question will be if there’s any room to Hillary’s right for him to run. He has, however, outmaneuvered Evan Bayh for the early favorite to be the “conservative” Democrat. Last “conservative” Democrat to earn the party’s endorsement: William Jennings Bryan. Plus, he’d probably get my vote were the primary today. He’s doomed.
4. Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) (LR: 2)
Slips a bit, but still a potentially formidable figure. Yes, he was somewhat disappointing as a Veep candidate, but let’s not forget that Bob Shrum was calling the shots. Nevertheless, I just don’t see him getting the nod either. No, call me crazy, but I think your nominee will be….
5. Fmr. Sen. Albert Gore, Jr. (D-TN) (LR: 9)
Last time around, I said, “I just don’t see Al running, and I really don’t see Al winning.” I think both of those statements may be wrong. He’s pure on the left, he’s got a film about global warming in the hopper, he seems to have found his passion for the issues again. Like Nixon in ’68, he’s tanned, he’s rested, he’s ready. And he’s the best-situated candidate to play Anti-Hillary in 2008. The only question is if he’ll run. So far he says no–but nobody will hold it against him if in, say, January of 2008, he tells us he feels he must run…for America.
6. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) (LR: 4)
Slides only two spots, but definitely into the second tier of candidates; somehow has to vault Warner to become relevant. Prognosis: negative.
7. Gen. Wesley Clark (ret.) (D-AR) (LR: 8 )
Still not quite sure what his raison d’etre would be in 2008. And cut off from his patrons the Clintons, not sure where he gets launched from. Then again, should Hillary change her mind for some reason, he could vault up as the Little Rock stalking horse.
8. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) (LR: NR)
He’s definitely gonna run, but what’s his constituency? The left of the party won’t have him, the right will be deciding between Clinton and Warner. Then again, I’m not quite ready to count him out–he’s quirky, and he’ll have plenty of MBNA money.
9. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) (LR: 3)
You’d think, given the amount of air time Richardson’s gotten thanks to immigration, that he’d be moving up the list. But sadly, it just reminds me how dull he really is.
10. Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) (LR: NR)
No.
11. Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) (LR: NR)
Once again: No.
12. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) (LR: 7)
Feingold has her boxed out for the liberal slot; only a potential factor if he decides not to run.
13. Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK) (LR: NR)
Certainly not.
14. Everyone else in the United States of America
You never know; that Kelly Clarkson is pretty popular.
280,000,001. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) (LR: NR)
Dear John,
You don’t seem to get it, so let me make it clear: my daughter has a better chance of securing the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. And yes, I know that since she’ll be six years old, she’ll be Constitutionally inelligible for the position. It doesn’t matter. The Democratic party is far more likely to turn to my currently-three-year-old daughter than you.
Do the party, do the nation, do yourself a favor: do not run.
Your pal,
Jeff Fecke
Republican Party
1. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) (LR: 2)
I’m boosting him into the top spot, but very trepidatiously. It’s not that he’s not doing the right things to secure the GOP nomination. It’s just that I can’t see the GOP endorsing him, no matter how much he prostrates himself before Jerry Falwell. Then again, 2008 is looking like an extraordinarily weak year for the GOP; McCain may well be their only hope.
2. Sen. George Allen (R-VA) (LR: NR)
Will the GOP roll the dice on a dimwitted faux-Southerner with a simplistic, us-versus-them view of the world? Hey, it worked before.
3. Fmr. Speaker Newton L. Gingrich (R-GA) (LR: NR)
Newt’s back! And he’s got a great potential position: as the “authentic” conservative running against the apostate conservatives who betrayed his revolution. Of course, Newt Gingrich also brought Tom DeLay into a position of power–don’t think that won’t come up now and again.
4. Fmr. Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY) (LR: 4)
There is no possible outcome more advantageous to the Democratic party than to have Rudy Giuliani somehow win the endorsement in 2008. Quite literally, I believe a Giuliani candidacy would shatter the Reagan coalition once and for all; I cannot believe that James Dobson would sit idly by while a pro-choice, pro-gay candidate ascended to the leadership of the Republican party. And I can’t believe the Republican party would want to find out.
5. Vice President Richard Cheney (R-WY) (LR: 3)
Still in the top five; he is the Vice President, and you don’t deny the Veep the shot at the top slot. Still, since last I played this game Dick shot a guy in the face; I have to believe that would hurt him should he decide to run.
6. Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) (LR: NR)
No reason for this other than gut feel that the rabid righties are giving up on Rick Santorum, and will need a new firebreather to get behind. Brownback fits the bill.
7. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (R-CA) (LR: 7)
Also pro-choice, plus a black woman. Will be as unacceptable to the Roy Moore wing of the party as she would be acceptable to the Pete DuPont wing. Has the same sort of effect as Giuliani should she win–except she also helps forcibly eject the abjectly racist wing of the GOP, as well.
8. Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) (LR: 1)
Wow, but Frist has cratered. More and more, he looks like a man who wants to be president but can’t articulate why. And even should he somehow win, he’ll still have to explain how he was able to diagnose Teri Schiavo from a thousand miles away. Toast.
9. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) (LR: 5)
Looks set to lose by double-digits in Pennsylvania; after that, he’s doubtful for the presidency.
10. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) (LR: NR)
Do you see a party with a huge base of evangelical protestants giving the nod to a Mormon? Me either.
11. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) (LR: 6)
Maybe, just maybe, Jeb Bush would have turned out to be more competent than his brother. We’ll never know, because nobody’s letting a Bush near the levers of power again for several generations.
12. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) (LR: NR)
Zero chance of the endorsement, high chance to screw things up for the GOP and Latinos for a generation.
13. Alan Keyes (R-MD and/or IL) (LR: NR)
Please, please, please, oh neck-bearded one. 2008 needs the kind of comic relief only you can bring.
Dropping Out:
Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger (R-CA)
Will be lucky to win reelection this fall. Minnesota tried to warn you: stay away from people who were in the movie Predator.
Fmr. Judge Roy Moore (R-AL)
Only because I see him more as the third-party answer to a Giuliani run.
Gov. George Pataki (R-NY)
As John Kerry is to Democrats, so George Pataki is to Republicans.
Topics: Election 2008, Power Rankings | 3 Comments »
May 15th, 2006 at 2:37 am
“1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (Last Ranking: 1)
No doubt, she’s still atop the leaderboard, and probably will be until early 2008. But why do I have this sneaking suspicion that she won’t be accepting the nomination that summer?”
Agree. Hillary resembles Joseph Lieberman in many ways– supposedly heavily favored before the primaries even started due to name recognition, but utterly repulsive to the Democrats once they actually get to know her and see her stands (her big cheerleading for the Iraq War, in particular). Her speaking gaffes alone will doom her. She recently went on a long tirade against “Generation Y” and how a bunch of lazy, undeserving, ungrateful whiners they are even as they ask for semi-reasonable salaries to help retire their ridiculous college debts. Yeah, that’s real smart– fundamentally alienate, in the most personal and vitriolic way, a group of tens of millions of young, particularly progressive voters. This on top of her other gems like comparing Gandhi to a gas-station worker, and her many other flubs. The other Dems vying for the nomination will be pounding her with those gaffes 24/7.
My guess, as far as the 2008 nominee for the Dems, resembles yours. I’d say it’s Al Gore *if* Al does decide to run, and I suspect he’d even win the general election. I’m surprised at how even many Republicans I meet, grudgingly grit their teeth and admit that they wish Gore had won in 2000, considering the disaster of the past 5+ years. Gore has the gravitas and the fire to win. If Gore decides not to run, then it’s probably Mark Warner who will get the nomination. Warner is actually quite progressive on many social and economic issues and pushed through a tax hike (a very necessary one) while remaining quite popular. As a governor, Warner also has the luxury about not being associated with support for the Iraq War, which is lethal for Hillary. But Warner also has cross-party appeal. Warner would also win in 2008 if nominated.
Among the GOP, I strongly suspect that the nominee will be John McCain, if for no other reason than the Republicans are going to be thrashed in the 2006 mid-term Congressional elections. I actually don’t see as big a Democrat victory in 2006 as some people believe, but I definitely see the Dems capturing at least one of the houses of Congress. In this weakened state, the GOP has a way of becoming pragmatic awfully fast, and they’ll see that someone like Brownback or Jeb Bush just isn’t a winner for them. Allen might be tougher, but lacks the broad appeal that McCain has. As you say, McCain is also forging alliances with Falwell and other evangelical conservative members, and he’s also already strengthening his position in Iowa and South Carolina. If the GOP is humiliated and out of power in Congress from the 2006 elections, then I very much *do* see the Republicans endorsing McCain. When you’ve been pummeled, you tend to put your petty sniping aside and look for a winner. McCain fits the bill.
May 17th, 2006 at 12:40 pm
2008 will be the first contested Democratic Convention since 1972. And Hillary won’t be walking out of that a winner. With the way things are now, I think Al Gore will be.
The Republicans will put up a McCain/Huckabee, McCain/Pawlenty, or McCain/token governor ticket.
REG