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Obama v. Huckabee? Don’t Bet Against It
By Jeff Fecke | January 4, 2008
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. But first, the numbers:
Iowa Caucuses
Democrats
Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 2%
Biden <1%
Dodd <1%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%
Republicans
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%
First off, Who’s Up, Who’s Down, Who’s Out?
Who’s Up
Barack Obama
Way, way, way up. Early in the evening, it was looking like Obama might edge out Edwards and Clinton. He didn’t edge out anyone. He beat them, and good. That eight percent looks really big, and given that he’s just a few percentage points behind Clinton in New Hampshire, this could easily push him over the top. Moreover, he’s within striking distance and closing in South Carolina. Only Nevada is safe for Clinton over the next month. By Super Duper Tuesday, Obama could have the race locked up.
Obama’s got serious mojo and serious support behind him. He is going to draw independents and nontraditional voters. He is one of those candidates who will likely outperform polls. People like him, and I’d say he’s going to be the nominee.
Mike Huckabee
The elites don’t get this, so let me clue you in. Mike Huckabee does not need to raise as much money as Mitt Romney to win. He does not need Richard Viguerie’s blessing. Huckabee has the Christain coalitionists on his side, and he’s gaining his votes bit by bit, church by church.
Does that mean the nomination is his? Of course not. Huckabee will struggle in places like New Hampshire and California. But he’s going to do better than you think in Kansas and Alabama. I’m going to tell you right now, Huckabee is in this until the finish. Will he be the nominee? He’s got the best chance of anyone in the GOP, so the answer is…probably not. But this is obviously a great start.
John McCain
John McCain shouldn’t be up, but the media is pushing him as hard as they can, and McCain is probably the moneyed interests’ best firewall against the Huckster. But the moneyed interests hate McCain, too. And McCain finished fourth tonight, behind the next guy who’s up….
Fred Thompson
Fred Thompson finished third, in the mid-teens for support. That was the threshold for his continuing on. Okay, he finished third by approximately one vote, but so what? Fredie of Hollywood lives to fight another day. As Matt Yglesias noted, “the idea of Fred Thompson — a totally normal, non-elderly orthodox conservative — makes a ton of sense.” Now Thompson just needs to turn that into reality. He’s probably too lazy to do that, but he lives on to fight another day.
Ron Paul
Paul is crazy, and racist, and generally horrible except for a few positions on civil liberties. But he broke double digits, and beat Rudy Giuliani, and that’s got to be a good feeling for the Paulbots.
Who’s Down
Hillary Clinton — BIG LOSER, DEMOCRATIC SIDE
Clinton essentially tied John Edwards, but that’s not how it looks from a cursory glance at the numbers. She got 29 percent of the votes, Edwards got 30 percent. That one percent looks bigger than it is, but that’s how the game is played.
The bigger problem for Clinton is that her entire raison d’etre is shattered. She was the inevitable candidate, the woman against whom nobody can stand. Except she just got beat, not just by Obama, but by Edwards. She’s clinging to a paper-thin lead in New Hampshire, and if New Hampshire voters saw Obama’s speech tonight, she isn’t anymore. She could well lose South Carolina, where her lead is far from impregnable. And with all the minor candidates not named Dennis Kucinich departing the race, Clinton will have to win over erstwhile Dodd and Biden supporters, not to mention that one couple that was supporting Gravel. And let’s face it: Hillary’s not going to do that. She’s run an incumbent’s campaign, and incumbents have to start way ahead because they’re known quantities. Hillary is at her peak right now. It may not be enough.
Mitt Romney — BIG LOSER, REPUBLICAN SIDE
Mitt Romney finished second in Iowa, and that’s just not good enough. He spent $3 trillion in Iowa, dispatched Tagg or Gatt or some other kid of his to all 99 Iowa counties, meaning he’s seen Newell and Fonda, not to mention Nevada — and he got his clocked cleaned by a guy who spent $1.50. If Mitt can hold off Old Man Surge in New Hampshire, he’ll be formidable, and probably win the nomination. But he pretty much has to beat McCain in New Hampshire. If not, he’s going to be in big trouble.
John Edwards
Edwards came in second. He gave a great, fiery speech, and got a great shot in at Hillary Clinton. But it just isn’t enough. Edwards supporters can spin all they want, but Edwards had bet everything on Iowa. He lost. He’s way behind in every upcoming state. This won’t propel him over the top, and he’ll be out of the race by South Carolina.
Rudy Giuliani
Giuliani wasn’t running in Iowa, that’s true. But sixth place? Behind Ron Paul? Only four percent of the vote? If you’re going to be your party’s nominee, you have to do better than that. Giuliani is probably going to fall behind Huckabee in New Hampshire, meaning he’ll finish fourth there. He’s already fallen to third in Michigan. He’s fallen to fourth in South Carolina. He was leading in the polls in Nevada at the start of December, but he was leading a whole bunch of places at the start of December. Yes, his theory has always been to win in Florida and go from there, but by Florida, Giuliani will probably have finished fourth or worse in four of five races. I don’t think Giuliani will still be viable by that point, and I have a strong feeling that he won’t be leading Florida by the time it happens.
Who’s Out
Bill Richardson
Richardson is simply out of time. His hope was always that the voters would reject one of the big three, and then dither between the remaining two. But that had to have happened by now. Richardson got two percent of the delegates tonight. He’ll do slightly better than that in New Hampshire, but he’s fourth everywhere and not moving up. He’s done.
Dennis Kucinich
Kucinich just hasn’t run very hard this time around, and it showed. He couldn’t manage a single delegate in all of Iowa. That’s pathetic. He should drop out now, go home to his lovely and intelligent wife, and be happy that he’s got a job in Congress.
Joe Biden — Actually Out
Biden was running for Secretary of State, and he did a good job of that. And mad props to him for rising to a point of personal privilege in his concession speech tonight. As a parliamentary procedure geek, I liked that. But he was never going to win. This just ices it.
Chris Dodd — Actually Out
Doddmentum ends in Iowa, evidently. At least he got a delegate, which puts him ahead of Dennis Kucinich.
Mike Gravel — Actually Out
Gravel will be remembered for dadaesque ads and…uh…yeah.
Duncan Hunter
Hunter finished way, way behind everyone. He worked awfully hard for 515 votes in all of Iowa. The only GOP candidate with no chance of winning, save for…
Alan Keyes
Does anyone else find it odd that Keyes evidently receive no votes whatsoever in all of Iowa? No? Okay, just me, I guess.
Power Rankings and Odds
Democrats
1. Barack Obama (1), Even
2. Hillary Clinton (2), 3-1
3. John Edwards (3), 10-1
4. Bill Richardson (4), 100-1
5. Dennis Kucinich (8), One Million-1
Dropping Out: Chris Dodd (5), Joe Biden (6), Mike Gravel (7)
Republicans
1. Mike Huckabee (1), 4-1
2. Brokered Convention (2), 6-1
3. John McCain (4), 10-1
4. Mitt Romney (3), 10-1
5. Fred Thompson (7), 100-1
6. Ron Paul (6), 10,000-1
7. Rudy Giuliani (5), 1000-1
8. Duncan Hunter (8), 100,000-1
9. Alan Keyes (12), 1.0 x 10100-1
Dropping Out: Tom Tancredo (9), Dick Cheney (10), George W. Bush (11)
Topics: Alan Keyes, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, Election 2008, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, It's Giuliani Time!, Joe Biden, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Power Rankings, Ron Paul | 2 Comments »
January 4th, 2008 at 3:39 am
[...] –The Blog of the Moderate Left has a GREAT RUNDOWN on where each candidate in the race now stands. [...]
January 4th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Can I bet $1000 with you on every line on the Republican side? You’re giving away free money with odds like that. Or are those odds to ultimately win the presidency? If they’re odds to get the party nomination, you’ll need to redo your math. :)