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SUSA: Tinklenberg Up 3
By Jeff Fecke | October 23, 2008
It’s not over, not by a long shot. Michele Bachmann can’t be counted out until the last ballot is counted, and even then, I’d be leery about declaring her defeated.
Still, the SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV poll has had a conservative lean to it this election, and it shows El Tinklenberg up by 3 points, 47-44. IP candidate Bob Anderson has 6 percent, and 2 percent are undecided. The margin of error is ±4. (H/T: MnIndy.)
Now, a 3 point lead with a ±4 MOE is hardly impregnable. But this is a huge red warning light for Michele. It’s possible, just possible, that after two years of the secret plot to give Iraq to Iran, lighbulb wars, and nationally-televised makeout sessions with W, the 6th District has grown weary of their duly elected representative in Congress. With the NRCC pulling out of the 6th and the D-trip going all in, and given Tinklenberg’s massive fundraising over the past week, the 6th is at worst a toss-up, and probably can be considered tilting Democratic.
Add to this the small-but-persistent lead for Al Franken in the Senate polls and the more-likely-than-not potential for an Ashwin Madia win, and there’s roughly an even-money chance that on November 5, Minnesota’s congressional delegation could be made up of 9 DFLers and Rep. Empty Suit, R-MN2. That would be a huge flip from the 5-5 split of 2006, and would signal the state’s movement back into true blue territory.
Of course, it’s not over ’til it’s over, and it’s entirely possible that Coleman and Bachmann could hold on. And the NRCC is moving back into the 3rd to try to save Paulsen (show some love to Ashwin Madia if you feel so inclined), and maybe that will work. The GOP could keep it a 7-3 or 8-2 split. But the GOP and Michele Bachmann in particular will be coming from behind here in the waning days of the campaign, and they certainly didn’t expect to be there in the 6th of all places.
Topics: Election 2008, Michele Bachmann | No Comments »