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52 Pick-Up
By Jeff Fecke | June 3, 2009
So Gov. Timmy has left the building. What more is there to do, but play…Power Rankings!
Republican Party
1. Brian Sullivan (LR: NR)
Businessman Brian Sullivan is well-liked in conservative circles, and he’s got enough money to potentially self-finance, though not so much as he did before SimonDelivers.com went belly-up. Sullivan was a political neophyte when he nearly won the GOP endorsement in 2002, and he’s spent the last seven years working hard and building strong relationships in the Republican party. That doesn’t mean he’d necessarily win the nomination — it has been seven years since he ran for anything, and he didn’t win. But given that all the Republican candidates are starting behind their DFL rivals, Sullivan is the candidate most able to pick up and get moving quickly out of the gates.
2. State Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, R-Big Lake (LR: NR)
By many accounts, Kiffmeyer isn’t thrilled to be a part of a legislative body; she likes the limelight too much. Oh, she’d rather be in the Minnesota House than in exile, but she’d rather be in a statewide executive office. And let’s face it, if anybody is beloved by the activist fringe of the Republican Party, it’s the almost cartoonishly-conservative former Secretary of State.
Could Kiffmeyer win a statewide race? I don’t know, is fundraising for an anti-Catholic bigot a dealbreaker? Probably not in getting the Republican Party’s nomination, anyhow; besides, with Minnesota Majority likely behind her, Kiffmeyer has a ready-made pool of activists ready to tap at a moment’s notice. I don’t know if she can go the distance — she’s loopy, and I doubt she’d hold up under the pressure of a spotlight race. But that doesn’t mean she can’t make some noise in the process.
3. Fmr. House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall (LR: 4)
Yes, former; Seifert quit as minority leader today to focus on his gubernatorial run, one he is all but certain to undertake. Seifert has some advantages going in, notably that he’s been the leader of the House GOP in a difficult period, and he’s managed to (mostly) keep them together to defend vetoes by Pawlenty. That’s a blessing and a curse — in many ways, Seifert is the easiest politician to tie directly to Pawlenty, and don’t think the DFL won’t try.
Seifert has the L pretty much to himself, which again is a blessing and a curse, as Marshall is not exactly the hub of Minnesota politics. It remains to be seen if he can parlay his recent legislative leadership into the kind of fundraising he’ll need to keep up with the Sullivans and Entenzas of the world. And of course, there’s always the question of how Seifert’s style will play in a run for governor. But he’s well-positioned, and definitely a front-runner.
Incidentally, with Seifert’s near-certain run, Matt Entenza’s run, and the possible candidacies of Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Steve Sviggum (who we’re getting to), we might have four of the past five House minority leaders running this year. I wonder what Tom Pugh is up to.
4. Commissioner of Labor and Industry Steve Sviggum (LR: NR)
Will Sviggum run? That’s the big question. If he does, the combative former speaker will definitely make a game of it. He’s got strong ties in the GOP, is well-regarded by his peers (nobody blames him for losing the House in 2006; that was inevitable), and presided over the House during the Republican Party’s most recent heyday.
For someone who was Speaker for eight years and served in the House for nearly a quarter-century, Sviggum is pretty young — only 57 — and he certainly still seems to have an appetite for politics. That said, running for Governor is a major undertaking, and given that Sviggum decided to get out of the electoral politics game in 2007, there’s no guarantee that he’ll want to get right back into it for 2010.
5. Fmr. State Auditor Pat Anderson (LR: 3)
Anderson is definitely interested in running, and she could be a formidable candidate. Or she could be a flop. It’s really hard to say; her star was very bright in the early part of the decade, and she’s got the conservative bona-fides to compete. But after losing to Rebecca Otto in 2006, she’s been hard to find, and there’s some question as to whether she’ll even run.
I tend to think that she will, because hey, what else is she gonna do? In a very crowded field, Anderson’s barely-veiled racism could pull in enough of the frightening wing of the GOP to make her competitive. I find it next to impossible that she could win in the general, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.
6. Fmr. Commissioner of Public Safety Charlie Weaver (LR: NR)
Like Sviggum, Weaver is an intriguing pick, a straight-shooter who served in both the Ventura and Pawlenty administrations, and who’s spent the past seven years working for the Minnesota Business Partnership, a lobbying group for Minnesota’s top 100 CEOs. That won’t hurt his fundraising potential. And while Weaver lost his only statewide race (to Mike Hatch, in 1998), he was and is a talented politician.
That said, Weaver hasn’t run for elective office since 1998, and he quit a gig as Pawlenty’s chief of staff to go make a lot of money with the MBP. Does he want to take the pay cut that being Governor would require? Or is he content out of office? I think he could be a strong candidate, but who knows if he’s still got the fire in the belly?
7. Senate Minority Leader David Senjem, R-Rochester (LR: NR)
Senjem hasn’t ruled out a run, and as the majority leader in the Senate, he’s at least been out there in the public eye. But given the math in the Senate, Senjem’s basically been unable to do anything; unlike Seifert, who has enough votes to gum up the works, Senjem basically had to sit back and watch the DFL push anything and everything through the Senate. That’s hardly a recipe for gaining respect.
Still, Senjem represents Rochester, and has a decent base of operations there; he’s got potential. Still, given the crowded field, I have a feeling he’ll sit this one out.
8. State Rep. Laura Brod, R-New Prague (LR: NR)
Brod may well be running, though why, I’m not sure. She’s not exactly a household name, and I can’t see her leapfrogging some of the names ahead of her on the list. She’s well-liked, and she’s seen as an up-and-comer, but it’s hard to see how she has the base to build a campaign that can take on Seifert, Sullivan, Kiffmeyer, or Sviggum. If some of the big guns decide to sit this one out, she might have a chance to sneak through, but I don’t see it being her year.
9. Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn. (LR: 2)
Coleman slips, mainly because the FBI investigation swirling around him is…well, swirling around him. He’s facing serious allegations of taking money and gifts from private individuals, things that are commonly referred to as “bribes.” If he’s indicted, he could face jail time. Hard to run for governor from jail.
Coleman could get back into the running if the heat dies down and if he bows out graciously after the Minnesota Supreme Court tells him to take his case and shove it. He’s a talented politician and he won’t have anything to do once this is all over. But unless things change, Norm is too badly dented to make a run.
10. State Sen. David Hann, R-Eden Prairie (LR: NR)
David Hann, like Laura Brod, is one of those relatively anonymous legislators who thinks that hey, 2010 may be fun. I just don’t see it, again unless the heavy hitters decide to take a pass.
11. Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Delano (LR: NR)
I only have Emmer this low because I don’t think he’s going to run; I think the bombastic Representative will take the opportunity of Marty Seifert’s exit to take over leadership of the House Republican Caucus, which fits his skill set better anyhow.
If he runs, he’ll certainly be entertaining; Emmer’s a bit of a loose cannon, and from a pure political theater standpoint, he’ll make the debates must-see TV. But his strengths are also his weaknesses; like Mike Hatch, he’s prone to saying really dumb things when he gets angry, and he’s not good at keeping himself from getting angry. But Emmer’s a home-run-or-strikeout guy; if he runs, he either will vault to number one quickly, or die a quick and merciless political death.
12. Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau (LR: 5)
Molnau has to be on the list. I mean, she’s the Lieutenant Governor, fercripessake. But that doesn’t mean she has to be on a position on the list that suggests she’ll be taken seriously. I mean, she lost a bridge into the Mississippi River during her tenure as MnDOT chief. That alone is enough to destroy one’s political future.
Molnau will, I suspect, join a long line of female Lieutenants to fade quickly from sight once elected. Given that the position, like the Vice Presidency, is basically a job where you sit in an office and wait for the Governor to die or get appointed to the Cabinet, that’s understandable.
13. Rep. Erik Paulsen, R-Minn. (LR: NR)
Paulsen gets 13 because Michele Bachmann has already ruled out a run; I expect Paulsen will soon enough. He obviously would be a potentially strong candidate, as long as the DFL endorses a brown-skinned opponent who he can demonize. But I can’t see Paulsen giving up the gig in Washington for a slim chance at the governor’s mansion.
14. Rep. John Kline, R-Minn. (LR: NR)
Kline is not going to run for anything other than U.S. Representative. He’s happy there; being a largely anonymous back-bencher is what he’s aspired to, and he’s got it, so why would he want to give that up to be governor, where people expect you to actually express your policy views more than once a decade? No, Rep. Empty Suit isn’t going anywhere.
15. Fmr. Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn. (LR: NR)
Ramstad has come up on a number of lists for the obvious reason: he’d be a virtually unbeatable candidate if nominated by the GOP. With a purely centrist voting record, tolerant social views (he’s pro-choice), and a reputation as a decent, affable guy, Ramstad would easily defeat anyone the DFL has to offer.
But of course, that’s why Ramstad is at the bottom of my list; he has a 0.0% chance of winning the Republican endorsement. Remember, this is the party that back in 1990 passed on Arne Carlson for Jon Grunseth, who turned out to be a child molester. This is the party that passed on endorsing Carlson in 1994, when he was the sitting governor. And that was 15 years ago; they’ve just gotten wackier since then.
Ramstad could bypass the endorsement process and run in the primary, but I really don’t see him doing that. Frankly, the guy retired from public service for a reason. I don’t think he’s coming back.
Falling out: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (LR: 1)
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
1. Fmr. House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, DFL-St. Paul (LR: 7)
Entenza has been pushing the inevitability meme over the past few months. He’s rolled out an endorsement from Keith Ellison, and he’s generally received decent press from those few people paying attention to the race right now. Entenza can do this because his campaign is well-funded and well-organized, and hey, that’s important.
That said, Entenza’s achilles heels haven’t gone away. He’s still the guy who hired a private eye to dig up dirt on Mike Hatch. He’s still cozy with big business. He’s still, well, Matt Entenza, and frankly, that’s a name that fits right in with candidates like Humphrey III, Moe, and Hatch — bland, uninspiring white guys who feel it’s their time.
I’m not saying that Entenza is awful…well, yeah, I kind of am. If the DFL wants to win back the governor’s mansion for the first time in 20 years, I would argue that Entenza’s not the guy to do it. I could be surprised, I suppose. But I doubt it.
2. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (LR: NR)
Rybak hasn’t announced yet, but only Dayton did better in the first SurveyUSA poll. He’s liked and likeable, and he’s almost certain to win another term in office in November; once that happens, I think he gets in the race, and watch out.
The thing going for Rybak is that he was one of the first national figures to back the presidential campaign of Barack Obama. Rybak campaigned with Obama in Minnesota, and was a strong and vocal supporter of his campaign. That did two things. First, it got Rybak out of the Twin Cities and into the state. Second, it got R.T. Rybak on good terms with the President of the United States. Given that the president is popular and charismatic, that’s a good guy to have on your side.
The big problem for Rybak will be that he’s going to have to do this on the fly. He can’t announce until December at the earliest, lest he hurt his chances of winning re-election for mayor. Yes, he can just keep the campaign apparatus humming, and that will help, but it will have to quickly change its target from winning Minneapolis in November to winning the DFL caucuses in March — and that will be a tough task. But given that this race seems destined to go to a primary, Rybak has as good a chance as anyone, and probably is the best candidate on the board for the DFL.
3. Fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn. (LR: 5)
Dayton is up this week thanks to strong initial polling against Tim Pawlenty. While Pawlenty’s gone, the polling results tell us something we may have forgotten: Mark Dayton is still pretty well-liked by Minnesotans. I know, right? But by not running in 2006, Dayton gave us all time to forget the weird closing-down-his-office thing, and remember that he’s a pretty decent guy who seems to like public service.
Of course, all the caveats about Dayton remain. He’s not especially charismatic, he’s a bit flighty, and he’s prone to being a bit distant from the jobs he wins once he wins them. But he’s definitely a factor. Who knew?
4. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman (LR: NR)
Chris Coleman’s chances largely depend on what R.T. Rybak does. For better or for worse, Coleman’s star is a bit dimmer than Rybak’s right now, and it’s hard to forsee a situation where both mayors are competitive in the race.
That said, I think Coleman does have a shot if Rybak, for whatever reason, passes on the race. And while I think Rybak wins the mayors’ mini-primary, there’s always the possibility that the son of a former Senate majority leader and brother of a columnist could have enough buttons to push that he outmaneuvers R.T.
5. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner (LR: 1)
Gaertner hasn’t made many waves yet, but it’s very early in the race, and she remains the most viable female candidate in the race. Her husband is still a P.R. professional who’s had the toughest job in the world (spokesperson for Jesse Ventura), so she’s got that asset. And she could get a chance to grandstand if Gov. Timmy balks at signing the election certificate; as Ramsey County Attorney, she could serve him the contempt order.
That said, at some point one of the declared candidates is going to have to start challenging Matt Entenza’s assumed mantle of inevitability. I understand that this is a marathon, not a sprint, and we’re at about mile two here, so I don’t want to overstate this. But hopefully by fall, Gaertner or Dayton or someone similar is standing toe-to-toe with Entenza. If not, Gaertner or Dayton or someone similar is not going to win.
6. State Sen. Tom Bakk, DFL-Cook (LR: 3)
Bakk remains my dark horse candidate. He’s got strong union ties, and he’s the only Iron Range candidate, and while the Range may not be what it used to be, it’s still a big chunk of the DFL electorate. Bakk isn’t the most charismatic candidate in the race, so he’s going to have to win this the old-fashioned way — with behind the scenes organizing. Some candidates — Rybak, Entenza, Gaertner, Dayton — can bypass the caucuses and run in the primary. Bakk is not one of them. He will need the party endorsement and the party apparatus behind him; if not, he’s not going to win.
7. House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, DFL-Minneapolis (LR: NR)
The early polling has not been kind to Anderson Kelliher, puting her in the lower tier of candidates matching up with Pawlenty. That’s not the end of the world — it’s early, after all — but MAK already has the second-best political job in the state, and she’d be taking an awfully big chance if she tried to step up to the best.
Frankly, were I Anderson Kelliher, I’d stay put; she can likely be speaker for quite some time, as it will probably take two or three cycles for the GOP to take the House under the best of circumstances. Kelliher could conceivably break the record for time with the speaker’s gavel. (Indeed, should she hold the speakership through July of 2011 — which seems likely should she remain in the House — she would become the longest-serving DFLer, the previous record of 4-1/2 years being held by Bob Vanasek.)
I like MAK, and think she’s got a bright future; indeed, she could get in the race and win it. But the odds don’t favor it, especially should Rybak throw his hat in the ring.
8. Fmr. State Sen. Steve Kelley, DFL-Hopkins (LR: 2)
Kelley frankly needs to get hopping, lest he be left behind. It’s early, but Kelley has to overcome not just his opponents, but the sense that he’s a perpetual loser. He can overcome that, of course — but will he? If he wants to, he’s going to have to make a big push, and he might want to be the candidate to really push Entenza. Someone’s gonna have to do it.
9. State Rep. Paul Thissen, DFL-Richfield (LR: 4)
Thissen remains above the Scorpio line, but barely; I continue to fail to understand the rationale behind his campaign, especially if Rybak and/or Coleman and/or Anderson Kelliher enters. Sure, he’s smart and competent and stuff, but he didn’t take on the type of leadership role that, say, Bakk did in the last session. I don’t really get why he’s running, and that’s probably not a good sign.
10. Oleveuse Scorpio Savior (LR: 6)
Ole!
11. State Sen. John Marty (LR: 8)
Marty is below the Scorpio line, as the first round of polling confirmed what we already knew: John Marty is really unpopular statewide. In a poll that favored candidates with name recognition, Marty finished near the bottom, despite having actually run for Governor in the general election 15 years ago. I’ve said it before, I’ve said it again: you don’t come back from a stomping like the one John Marty got in 1994. He can stay in the Senate forever, and Godspeed. But he will not be governor, period.
Topics: Brian Sullivan, Charlie Weaver, Chris Coleman, David Senjem, John Marty, MN-GOV, Mark Dayton, Marty Seifert, Mary Kiffmeyer, Matt Entenza, Norm Coleman, Pat Anderson, Paul Thissen, R.T. Rybak, Steve Kelley, Steve Sviggum, Susan Gaertner, Tom Bakk | 1 Comment »
June 5th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Wow, nice work.