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Inevitable
By Jeff Fecke | July 12, 2009
In 1990, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party put forth a sacrificial lamb for the United States Senate. The feisty college professor was entertaining, and the base loved him, but he obviously couldn’t beat the firmly entrenched and well-liked Sen. Rudy Boschwitz, I-R-Minn.
In 1991, everyone knew that President George H.W. Bush was bound for re-election. He had successfully prosecuted a war against Iraq, and the country was riding high. He couldn’t be defeated; everyone knew it.
Late in 1991, everyone knew that the Democratic nominee for president would probably be New York Gov. Mario Cuomo. Cuomo was a great speaker, a strong campaigner, and he had plenty of connections that all-but-guaranteed victory. It was foolish even to run against him.
In the spring of 1992, everyone knew that presumptive Democratic nominee and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton was doomed, fatally wounded by an intra-party fight and personal foibles. The race would be between Bush and independent Ross Perot, and Bush would almost certainly win.
In 1993, everyone knew that the Democrats were ascendant; they controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency for the first time since the Carter administration. Bill Clinton was popular, and there was a strong possibility that health care reform would be passed within the year.
In 1995, everyone knew that Bill Clinton would probably lose to Bob Dole, because the GOP was ascendant. House Speaker Newt Gringrich, R-Ga., would be a fixture at the House’s rostrum for decades to come, unless he decided to run for president some day.
In 1998, everyone knew that while the Reform Party’s nominee for governor was amusing, there was no possible way that a talk show host and former wrestler like Jesse Ventura could beat DFL Attorney General Skip Humphrey or Republican St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman. Ventura might get seven or eight percent, or maybe, if he was lucky, he might break double digits. So certain of this were people that State Senate Majority Leader and Lt. Governor candidate Roger Moe, DFL-Erskine, urged Humprhey to make sure Ventura got a lot of exposure in the debates, because he’d probably pull more from Coleman.
In 1999, everyone knew the Clinton brand had been wounded for all-time. Bill Clinton had been impeached and embarassed, and while he survived the attempt to remove him from office, he would live out his life in shame. His wife, First Lady Hillary Clinton, was obviously dreaming when she mentioned she might run for U.S. Senate in New York; she wasn’t from New York, and who would ever vote for a Clinton again after all that?
In late 2003, everyone knew that John Kerry stood no chance of winning the Democratic nomination for president. He’d fallen behind in the polls and in money, and he’d been outmaneuvered by Howard Dean, who was clearly going to win the nomination. Kerry didn’t stand a chance.
In 2004, everyone knew that the Democratic nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat from Illinois would be businessman Blair Hull, a multimillionaire who spent $28 million of his own money in pursuit of the seat. Hull would be taking on multimillionaire businessman Jack Ryan, the former spouse of actress Jeri Ryan. Oh, sure, a few others were in the race, including a relatively unknown, skinny state senator from Chicago with a funny name and big ears. But clearly, it was going to be Hull and Ryan, and anyone who said otherwise was dooming the Democrats to defeat.
In 2005, everyone knew the Democrats were now entering a long period in the wilderness; out of power in the House and Senate, George W. Bush winning a second term, promising Social Security reform that was obviously going to pass, solidifying his legacy. The Democrats were doomed for the forseeable future.
In 2006, the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination had emerged in the person of Sen. George Allen, R-Va. A popular senator from a clearly red state, Allen was a folksy cowboy, just like George W. Bush. Sure, there were others, but Allen was the probable nominee.
In 2007, everybody knew that the Democratic nominee for president was going to be Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. She had more money and a better organization than anyone running for the office, and it was viewed as a fool’s errand for anyone even to challenge her. Oh, sure, a few people did — former Sen. John Edwards, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, and a relatively inexperienced, skinny senator from Illinois with a funny name and big ears. But clearly, Hillary would be the nominee, and anyone who said otherwise was dooming the party to defeat.
In 2009, everyone knows that Matt Entenza will be the nominee for the DFL in 2010. He’s got a lot of money and a strong organization, and he will obviously steamroll anyone in his way. Anyone who says otherwise is dooming the party to defeat.
Topics: Barack Obama, Election 2010, Hillary Rodham Clinton, MN-GOV, Matt Entenza | 5 Comments »
July 12th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Don’t forget the “inevitability” of Terry McAuliffe in VA from just a few weeks ago…
How about less Entenza bashing and more promoting of other more deserving candidates though? People are probably well versed with Matt’s flaws and history and may choose to support him anyway. But maybe if they knew more positive things about the other candidates they would lean in another direction instead.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Don’t worry, RG, I’ll get to it. But I did think it’s important to remind people who are declaring now, a year-and-a-half before the election, that Matt Entenza is “going to be the nominee” that they know no such thing. Inevitable means nothing until the votes are counted.
July 13th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Huh… he’s not one of the three candidates I’m seeing polled.
How about that Rybak guy?
July 14th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
This is, I think, the take away point.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Good point, Neil!